Until the late 1960s, the total fertility rate was five — since then, it has halved
In the past fifty years, the total fertility rate has steeply declined as a result of women’s empowerment, declining child mortality, and the rising cost of bringing up children.
In the past, people had many more children than today.
The metric demographers use to measure this is the total fertility rate. It is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if the woman were to experience the current age-specific fertility rates throughout her lifetime.1
From 1950 onwards, we have good data from the UN Population Division. The chart here shows the average across the world: the global total fertility rate. Up to 1965, the total fertility rate was around five. Since then, we have seen an unprecedented change. The number has halved. Globally, the average is now below 2.5.
Why has the global fertility rate fallen so rapidly?
In another article on the fertility rate, we discuss the reasons for this change. In brief, the three major reasons are the empowerment of women (increasing access to education and increasing labor market participation), declining child mortality, and the rising cost of bringing up children (to which the decline of child labor contributed).
The global decline of the fertility rate
The total fertility rate has halved in sixty years — what are the causes of the decline?
What does declining global fertility mean for the population?
Due to the declining global fertility rate, the global population growth rate has dropped from a peak of 2.3% per year in 1963 to less than 1% today.
In our discussion on the global population rate, we explain that we are, therefore, in the transition to a new balance where rapid population change will come to an end: “The big global demographic transition that the world entered more than two centuries ago is then coming to an end: This new equilibrium is different from the one in the past when it was the very high mortality that kept population growth in check. In the new balance, it will be low fertility that keeps population changes small.”
Endnotes
The second aspect considered in the measurement of the total fertility rate is that the representative woman was to survive throughout all her childbearing years.
The total fertility rate is a period indicator and, in this way, similar to period life expectancy. For period life expectancy, demographers rely on the age-specific mortality rates at one point in time (i.e., one year) and then ask: How long would the average person live if the current age-specific mortality rates would remain constant — we explain the measurement of life expectancy in more detail here.
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Max Roser (2019) - “Until the late 1960s, the total fertility rate was five — since then, it has halved” Published online at OurWorldinData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/global-fertility-has-halved' [Online Resource]BibTeX citation
@article{owid-global-fertility-has-halved,
author = {Max Roser},
title = {Until the late 1960s, the total fertility rate was five — since then, it has halved},
journal = {Our World in Data},
year = {2019},
note = {https://ourworldindata.org/global-fertility-has-halved}
}
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